As COVID-19 intensifies worldwide, China faces the challenge of preventing imported cases from abroad and domestic rebound at home. This has delayed the full recovery of the exhibition industry and revealed many deep-seated problems in industry development, which require calm reflection. Staying at home has also given people more time to think. In WeChat groups, exhibition professionals have been speaking openly about how the industry should develop in the context of COVID-19. I would also like to share three thoughts.
Deeply understand the great changes unseen in a century.
In July 2018, China's president said at the BRICS Business Forum that the world today is facing great changes unseen in a century. Under the current circumstances, I believe we need to understand this judgment with particular seriousness.
Across thousands of years of human history, many major and minor events have occurred. But great changes unseen in a century do not refer to any single event. They refer to many factors affecting social development that gradually accumulate until society reaches a critical point of major transformation. Such transformation is unseen in a century, but it is often triggered by a specific event. Therefore people sometimes regard that event as a once-in-a-century event.
The current COVID-19 outbreak arrived with great force, seriously affecting social life and the global economy. We have not encountered such a situation before, and young people who are growing up now and will occupy leading social positions in the future may not necessarily encounter it again. Former U.S. statesman Henry Kissinger has said the pandemic will permanently change the world order. Behind the virus, however, are numerous factors affecting the international political and economic order, such as globalization, China-U.S. relations, racial discrimination, and the disconnect between the real economy and the virtual economy. Together with the virus, these factors have struck humanity.
For the exhibition industry, if we understand great changes unseen in a century in this way, one question needs reflection: over the past several decades, have we subjectively imagined the development of China's exhibition industry too optimistically and too simply? On the surface, COVID-19 is obstructing industry development. In fact, many deep-seated factors that affect industry development, such as the value of the exhibition industry, government-enterprise relations, the rebuilding of confidence among exhibitors and visitors, exhibition theory systems and talent structure, the two-sided effects of technology on exhibitions, and improvement of the enterprise chain, were previously hidden. Now, when the industry is in a vulnerable stage, the coronavirus has acted as a catalyst and exposed these factors. It is as if the industry encountered a sudden attack without necessary preparation.
Therefore, this is a period in which the industry especially needs reflection.
Correctly assess the value of the exhibition industry.
There are many deep factors behind the current difficulties of the exhibition industry. Here I will discuss value judgment regarding the industry.
As exhibition professionals, we naturally hope that the work we are engaged in has great value. But realistically, the position of the exhibition industry exists objectively. It cannot be elevated at will simply through encouragement, morale boosting or more support policies.
First, the exhibition industry is a service industry. Ultimately, its rise and fall depend on the rise and fall of the industries it serves. We often say the exhibition industry is a barometer of the economy, meaning that it reflects actual economic conditions and development trends. At present, manufacturing and services have both been seriously affected by COVID-19. Personnel mobility and logistics systems are not operating normally, leading to abnormal resumption of work. Political and economic fluctuations worldwide have also seriously affected foreign trade, worsening the economic situation. Under such circumstances, if the overall economy is weak, the exhibition industry as a whole will not rise against the trend. On the surface, the current suspension of exhibition projects is due to epidemic prevention requirements and caution about risks from dense gatherings. At a deeper level, it reflects the downturn in the overall economy. In fact, we have already seen that some exhibitions have been canceled not because epidemic restrictions prevented group activities, but because exhibitors' survival problems led them to withdraw. Therefore, while exhibition professionals work to restore current business, they must also formulate future strategies from the perspective of serving industries.
Second, this epidemic requires us to re-examine the industrial links between the exhibition industry and other service industries. We have long said that the exhibition industry has a one-to-nine driving effect, and input-output models do demonstrate such a mechanism. But essentially, all driving effects are mutual. Large exhibition projects do stimulate catering, accommodation, transport, tourism, shopping and entertainment, but those service industries have their own reasons for existence and development and may not depend on exhibitions. During this epidemic, the exhibition industry was severely blocked, but tourism, commerce, transportation, hotels and catering did not show losses nine times greater. On the contrary, these industries continued working hard, and the expectations of government and society toward them exceeded those toward the exhibition industry.
This analysis is not intended to discourage the exhibition industry. It is intended to encourage rational guidance for industry development and objective thinking. We must correctly judge the industry's inherent fundamental value and understand and determine its development direction from the perspectives of an economic barometer and a platform for integrating production factors.
Physical exhibition projects remain the core logic.
There has been much discussion about when exhibition projects should restart. Government departments have held symposiums, and professionals have expressed different views. To some extent, signs of hesitation have appeared. Many experts have also proposed using online exhibitions to supplement offline exhibitions. A few days ago, we finally heard the decision that the 2020 spring Canton Fair would be held online.
I believe we must work hard to create conditions, coordinate all parties and restore offline exhibitions, that is, physical exhibition projects, as soon as possible.
First, both theoretical analysis and practical cases prove that virtual space can never replace face-to-face contact between people. Online and offline exhibitions must support and complement each other. Online exchange serves face-to-face communication. The 2020 spring Canton Fair was moved online only because its opening date was close and the task of preventing imported cases was extremely difficult, while preparations for the autumn Canton Fair had to follow. Overall, this online edition is only a supplement to the Canton Fair's decades-long physical model and is unlikely to replace it over the long term.
Second, offline exhibitions can truly form an enterprise ecosystem. Physical exhibition projects require a full process from market research to planning, exhibitor recruitment, buyer invitation, design, booth construction and operation, and they need support from logistics, human resources, finance and insurance, commerce, transportation, advertising, media and other industries. Holding physical projects as soon as possible can revive many small and medium-sized enterprises. It should be emphasized that enterprises are like human bodies: their life process has a critical point. If they lack conditions for survival and pass that point into death and disintegration, activity cannot resume even when conditions later recover. From this perspective, physical projects including offline exhibitions are an important precondition for maintaining China's economic ecology. If online exhibitions can never replace offline exhibitions, then ensuring the survival of countless small and micro enterprises in the exhibition industry has not only economic significance but also social and ethical significance.
Third, looking more broadly, this epidemic reminds people of the importance of the real economy. All human activity must first ensure human survival, and survival is based on material foundations. The virtual economy serves the real economy, and capital operations are valuable only when they benefit agriculture, construction and manufacturing. At present, the most eye-catching goods in international trade are masks, ventilators and test kits; next should be equipment and machinery needed to resume production, as well as grain, crude oil and other strategic goods related to the national economy and people's livelihoods. This is a warning: a major country must have its own complete industrial entity system and cannot completely rely on others for the production of material goods. From this, we can see that the position of physical exhibition projects will not be overturned by one epidemic. However, innovation in physical exhibitions is urgent. It is time for the exhibition industry to remove the long-criticized label of being conservative and unwilling to reform. That, of course, is another major topic.
Chen Xianjin
MBA, senior international business professional, member of the 10th, 11th and 12th Shanghai CPPCC, Party secretary of the Shanghai Convention and Exhibition Industries Association, chair of the National Technical Committee for Standardization of the Exhibition Industry, and honorary president of UFI.
